Both sides of politics are focused on one group of voters

Still, Labor’s embarrassing contortions point towards its terror of the subject. And what is this but a willingness to sacrifice equality in favour of the rich having more choices about where to invest their cash?

You could put this new iron law of Australian politics even more simply: whatever you do, try not to upset the rich.

Take the housing policies offered by the major parties last weekend. Yes, some young people will get help – but only in the context of a policy which will push up prices further, making those with assets richer.

If campaign momentum was against Albanese, the modelling mess could have been disastrous. But it’s not. As I’ve repeatedly written, Trump’s intervention was likely decisive. But that said, with less than two weeks to go, it seems hard to deny Albanese judged the tone of his campaign well. Labor’s case is about stable, steady progress. And the thrust of that campaign – essentially “after difficult times Australia has turned a corner and begun fixing Medicare/energy/foreign relations” – was being discussed in detail within Labor about a year ago.

As were the sharp attacks on Dutton’s record as health minister. If there was any doubt these were working, it was scotched two weeks ago when Dutton, on breakfast TV, brought up those attacks without being asked about them, so eager was he to dismiss them publicly.

This points to two facts that will stand out if Labor wins. The first is that Labor left itself lots of time to make its case: it has been running the health attack on Dutton for two years. The Coalition, on the other hand, had far too much to do going in. It had to rebut such attacks. It had to tear down Albanese at just the moment when an interest rate cut seemed to indicate things had indeed turned a corner. And it had to make Dutton more appealing to voters than he had been.

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What does the Coalition do for the final two weeks? Does it still believe victory is possible? If not, it might end its efforts to make Dutton palatable and put everything into dragging Labor down. You can see an example of what this might look like in a Coalition ad released last week, with two young blokes watching TV in a pub and complaining about Albanese and his focus on the Voice.

It’s true Labor has made some moves towards addressing inequality this term. Mostly, though, they have tried hard not to upset the rich. The stage 3 tax cuts were changed – but the rich still did very well. The Gonski school funding reforms are being delivered – but the absurd divisions in our system remain in place. JobSeeker was raised once, a little. There will be some more houses – and those that get to buy one will be able to reduce their taxes.

If Labor wins, for whatever combination of reasons, we will have learned one important fact: Albanese can in fact campaign. He can, when he absolutely has to, bring home an argument.

It’s fascinating to consider what Albanese could do with his new-found skill in a conducive environment, with inflation fading and a second election win under his belt. That is, if he was determined to shift the assumptions that have reigned since John Howard established them and began to make his case early, like he did with his campaign. If he wins in a fortnight, Albanese will have proved he can win an argument with Peter Dutton. In the next term, can he win one with John Howard?

Sean Kelly is author of The Game: A Portrait of Scott Morrison, a regular columnist and a former adviser to Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd.

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