Tim’s back, baby! Is it time to make him the Liberal leader?

One does, unfortunately, have to hand it to Tim Wilson. 

The former IPA policy director and most divisive “moderate” in politics never took his eye off the prize (or the wreath), yesterday reclaiming the wealthy seat of Goldstein from independent Zoe Daniel in the first Liberal gain of the election. And he’s already back on the tweets.

Whatever-it-takes Wilson, the only Liberal MP beaten by an independent to recontest their seat, becomes the first and only Liberal to defeat a member of 2022’s “teal wave” — secret landlord Amelia Hamer is close to unseating Monique Ryan (Josh Frydenberg no doubt wondering if he would’ve got there). The “quirky” Wilson celebrated online with some frozen yoghurt, despite knowing it would spoil his dinner, which was perhaps the most Tim Wilson thing Tim Wilson could possibly do.

The returned MP had already spoiled the dinner of many progressives, many of whom suggested (shamefully) some kind of postal vote interference. But Wilson — who’s spent the term cringely hovering around, pestering councils with “annoying” questions about Daniel, yesterday telling Nine he gave up work for the past few years to focus on his campaign — has won legitimately, even if it was, according to locals, a dirty and hostile ground campaign.

Wilson has already been floated for party leader, as one of the few Liberals who’s shown he can win back the heartland — not to mention one of the only “moderates” in the partyroom (though his record on women leaves something to be desired). The wildly ambitious MP was uncharacteristically “tight-lipped” on the subject, though he’s no doubt intensely working the phones, between tearful acceptance speeches and backing in nuclear.

So why the swing towards the Liberals in Goldstein, when the reverse seems to have happened in the teal seats of Sydney and Perth? While each seat has different factors, there’s something decisive about Goldstein’s 2CP swing, which is sitting around 3.9%, around twice that of Kooyong’s. Daniel’s primary did increase slightly, though Labor’s and the Greens’ — whose preferences teal indies rely on — were down, with Wilson’s up almost 5%.

Punters have a range of views, from the discontent with state Labor (this being the seat of Bec Judd afterall), to a change in boundaries, to anger among parts of the Jewish community, whom Wilson actively courted (this may also be a factor in Allegra Spender receiving the smallest swing of the Sydney group). I have long pondered whether prodigal Libs were eager to return to their fiscally conservative home (Daniel and Ryan were the only teals to support Labor’s industrial relations changes), or perhaps simply to return some “moderates” to the Liberal partyroom. Though why Wilson? 

Wilson puts the win down to his assiduous campaign, which began at the end of 2022, with “commissioned research and focus groups to identify why he lost, the psychology behind voting for the teal independents, and how they could frame Daniel”. He implies he ran a teal-like campaign; Daniel’s camp says it was “brutal, hostile and abusive”, exploiting the trauma of the Jewish community with anonymous shit sheets and attack ads accusing her of antisemitism.

Redbridge senior insights analyst Alex Fein cautions against drawing any conclusions until it’s possible to go through the data, adding that the story is “complex”. But she suggests Sydney communities may have stuck more firmly with the independents because they are “insular” and “coherent”, while Melbournians are currently “disengaged” and “news avoidant” — the latter of which she puts down to the long-term effects of the pandemic.

So does this make Tim Wilson — the Libs’ one “sliver of hope” — the most suitable candidate for leader? Wilson thinks so. As he told the AFR in April, “People sometimes think I have more confidence than I should.” Speaking to media following his victory, the MP said there were lessons from his campaign “for a recovering Liberal Party”, arguing he would have gone harder against Labor’s attempts to increase taxes on large super balances, having led the charge against changes to franking credits.

One might argue that’s decidedly not what the Liberals need right now. While Wilson, who is gay, defines himself as a moderate, he has previously argued against climate action (from Australia’s involvement in the Kyoto Protocol to the existence of the Climate Change Authority), while pushing to repeal Section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act, and defending the rights of people like Margaret Court to make homophobic comments.

Many believe Wilson is a moderate in name only, which, as I suggested when it came to Hamer, would provide false assurance to small-l liberals. What is really needed is a true moderate renewal. He is, on the other hand, an endless source of entertainment for auspol watchers, with his ability to get under the skin of allies and enemies alike likely to serve him well.

But has Wilson, as claimed in various interviews since clinching victory, learned some humility? On the contrary, Wilson believes he has “defied political gravity” here, achieving something that no MP has achieved before him.

Progressives would be foolish to laugh him off. That’s what people have been doing for years, particularly when he tried to lay an ANZAC Day wreath put aside for a Zoe Daniel volunteer — a stunt Wilson believes helped voters see him as active and involved.

Look who’s laughing now.

Could Tim Wilson lead the Liberal Party?

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